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HSC 21 vs Urk Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Group A - 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

HSC 21

PPG 0.31 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Urk

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-12.0%0-23.1%0-33.2%0-4+5.3%1 1-01.2%1-13.9%1-26.0%1-36.2%1-4+10.4%2 2-01.2%2-13.8%2-25.9%2-36.1%2-4+10.2%3 3-00.8%3-12.5%3-23.8%3-33.9%3-4+6.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.9%4+-22.9%4+-33.0%4+-4+5.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.9% — — —

Draw 19.7% — — —

Away win 55.4% — — —

Over 2.5 79.0% — — —

Over 3.5 74.2% — — —

BTTS 66.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -53.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)3.1 BTTS prob66.7%

A 55% / xG 1.9-3.1 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 6.2%

#2 2–3 6.1%

#3 1–2 6.0%

#4 2–2 5.9%

#5 1–4 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HSC 211.9

Urk3.1

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 74.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HSC 21 · PPG 0.31

URK · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: POOR form (0.88) vs Home POOR (0.31)

Win probability 1X2

HSC 21 (H) 24.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Urk (A) 55.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

HSC 21 face Urk in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HSC 21 a 25% chance, the draw 20% and Urk 55%, so Urk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for HSC 21 and 3.1 for Urk (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HSC 21 are averaging 0.31 points per game versus 0.88 for Urk. This match finished 0-1.

HSC 21 vs Urk Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Match Preview & Prediction

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