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Genemuiden vs DOVO Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Group A - 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

Genemuiden

PPG 1.81 · HOME

2 – 6

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

DOVO

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-15.9%0-23.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.0%1-110.5%1-26.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-19.4%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.3%3-15.6%3-23.7%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.8%4+-22.5%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% — — —

Draw 25.0% — — —

Away win 25.8% — — —

Over 2.5 61.4% — — —

Over 3.5 37.8% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -53.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-6

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.9%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Genemuiden1.8

DOVO1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 37.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GENEMUIDEN · PPG 1.81

DOVO · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.81) > Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Genemuiden (H) 49.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

DOVO (A) 25.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Genemuiden face DOVO in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Genemuiden a 49% chance, the draw 25% and DOVO 26%, so Genemuiden are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Genemuiden and 1.3 for DOVO (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Genemuiden are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.07 for DOVO. This match finished 2-6.

Genemuiden vs DOVO Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Match Preview & Prediction

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