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Excelsior 31 vs Staphorst Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Group A - 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

Excelsior 31

PPG 1.06 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Staphorst

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-16.6%0-26.0%0-33.6%0-4+2.5%1 1-05.4%1-19.9%1-29.0%1-35.4%1-4+3.7%2 2-04.1%2-17.4%2-26.7%2-34.1%2-4+2.8%3 3-02.0%3-13.7%3-23.4%3-32.0%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.9%4+-21.8%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% — — —

Draw 23.7% — — —

Away win 41.2% — — —

Over 2.5 61.4% — — —

Over 3.5 42.4% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -53.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob59.7%

A 41% / xG 1.5-1.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Excelsior 311.5

Staphorst1.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.4%

Form & verdict PPG

EXCELSIOR 31 · PPG 1.06

STAPHORST · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.06) vs Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Excelsior 31 (H) 35.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Staphorst (A) 41.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Excelsior 31 face Staphorst in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Excelsior 31 a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Staphorst 41%, so Staphorst are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Excelsior 31 and 1.8 for Staphorst (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Excelsior 31 are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.44 for Staphorst. This match finished 3-1.

Excelsior 31 vs Staphorst Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Match Preview & Prediction

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