Today / Latvia - 1. Liga / Metta vs Alberts JDFS

Metta vs Alberts JDFS Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 15:00

Metta

PPG 2.25 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Alberts JDFS

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 71.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-11.4%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.6%1-14.5%1-21.6%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.5%2-17.2%2-22.5%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.2%3-17.7%3-22.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-019.9%4+-113.7%4+-24.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.0% 66.7% 1.50 +6.5%

Draw 20.4% 23.1% 4.33 -7.0%

Away win 8.6% 22.2% 4.50 -36.8%

Over 2.5 63.9% 69.4% 1.44 -8.0%

Over 3.5 54.3% 48.1% 2.08 +12.9%

BTTS 51.6% 67.6% 1.48 -23.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 15%

ROI -0.6%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob51.6%

H 71% / xG 3.2-0.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 11.2%

#2 2–0 10.5%

#3 4–0 8.9%

#4 3–1 7.7%

#5 2–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Metta3.2

Alberts JDFS0.7

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 54.3%

Form & verdict PPG

METTA · PPG 2.25

ALBERTS JDFS · PPG 1.00

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.25), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Metta (H) 71.0%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV +6.5%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -7.0%

Alberts JDFS (A) 8.6%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -36.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Metta face Alberts JDFS in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Metta a 71% chance, the draw 20% and Alberts JDFS 9%, so Metta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Metta and 0.7 for Alberts JDFS (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Metta are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.00 for Alberts JDFS. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.9%. This match finished 4-1.

Metta vs Alberts JDFS Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Latvia - 1. Liga Predictions