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Hegelmann L. vs Suduva Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 14:00

Hegelmann L.

PPG 1.38 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Suduva

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.6%0-117.0%0-28.7%0-33.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.8%1-113.1%1-26.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-05.0%2-15.1%2-22.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.3%3-11.3%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.1% 32.3% 3.10 -7.7%

Draw 34.3% 34.5% 2.90 -0.5%

Away win 37.5% 45.5% 2.20 -17.5%

Over 2.5 35.0% 45.5% 2.20 -23.0%

Over 3.5 10.8% 25.0% 4.00 -34.1%

BTTS 47.2% 54.1% 1.85 -12.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.2%

D 34% / xG 0.8-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.6%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 0–1 17.0%

#4 1–0 12.8%

#5 0–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hegelmann L.0.8

Suduva1.0

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 10.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HEGELMANN L. · PPG 1.38

SUDUVA · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.38) vs P(Home)=28.1%

Win probability 1X2

Hegelmann L. (H) 28.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.7%

Draw 34.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -0.5%

Suduva (A) 37.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -17.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hegelmann L. face Suduva in Lithuania - A Lyga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hegelmann L. a 28% chance, the draw 34% and Suduva 38%, so Suduva are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Hegelmann L. and 1.0 for Suduva (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hegelmann L. are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.50 for Suduva. This match finished 2-2.

Hegelmann L. vs Suduva Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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