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Venda FC vs The Bees Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Regular Season - 25 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:00

Venda FC

PPG 1.18 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

The Bees

PPG 0.45 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.2%0-111.1%0-24.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.6%1-113.0%1-25.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.7%2-17.6%2-23.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.8%3-13.0%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.1%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 42.7% 2.34 +5.1%

Draw 30.5% 33.3% 3.00 -8.5%

Away win 24.7% 32.9% 3.04 -24.9%

Over 2.5 31.1% — — —

Over 3.5 13.5% — — —

BTTS 37.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 19.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 51%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob37.5%

H 45% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 31% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.6%

#2 0–0 14.2%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 2–0✓ 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Venda FC1.2

The Bees0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.1% · O3.5 PROB 13.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VENDA FC · PPG 1.18

THE BEES · PPG 0.45

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.18) > Away POOR (0.45)

Win probability 1X2

Venda FC (H) 44.9%

ODDS 2.34 · IMPLIED 42.7% EV +5.1%

Draw 30.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.5%

The Bees (A) 24.7%

ODDS 3.04 · IMPLIED 32.9% EV -24.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Venda FC face The Bees in South-Africa - 1st Division on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Venda FC a 45% chance, the draw 31% and The Bees 25%, so Venda FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Venda FC and 0.8 for The Bees (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Venda FC are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 0.45 for The Bees. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Venda FC vs The Bees Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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