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Orbit College vs Lerumo Lions Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Matchday 3 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 17:30

Orbit College

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

LD ···

UPCOMING

Lerumo Lions

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

DW ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-110.6%0-24.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.1%1-113.0%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.8%2-17.9%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.0%3-13.2%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.9% 44.4% 2.25 -8.0%

Draw 31.2% 34.5% 2.90 -9.5%

Away win 27.8% 32.3% 3.10 -8.3%

Over 2.5 38.8% 42.0% 2.38 -7.7%

Over 3.5 20.1% 23.8% 4.20 -9.3%

BTTS 42.6% 51.3% 1.95 -16.9%

Home O1.5 33.4% 41.2% 2.43 -18.8%

Away O1.5 23.5% 32.9% 3.04 -17.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 61%

ROI 13.8%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob42.6%

H 41% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.2%

#2 1–1 13.0%

#3 1–0 16.1%

#4 0–1 10.6%

#5 2–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orbit College1.2

Lerumo Lions0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.8% · O3.5 PROB 20.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ORBIT COLLEGE · PPG 1.42

LERUMO LIONS · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.41, combined xG 2.02 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Orbit College (H) 40.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -8.0%

Draw 31.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -9.5%

Lerumo Lions (A) 27.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orbit College face Lerumo Lions in South-Africa - 1st Division on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orbit College a 41% chance, the draw 31% and Lerumo Lions 28%, so Orbit College are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Orbit College and 0.8 for Lerumo Lions (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orbit College are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.25 for Lerumo Lions.

Orbit College vs Lerumo Lions Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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