Today / Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand / Syrianska vs Nacka Iliria

Syrianska vs Nacka Iliria Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand - 8 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:00

Syrianska

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Nacka Iliria

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-13.7%0-23.3%0-31.9%0-4+1.3%1 1-04.3%1-17.7%1-26.8%1-34.1%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.6%2-18.1%2-27.2%2-34.3%2-4+2.8%3 3-03.2%3-15.7%3-25.1%3-33.0%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-14.9%4+-24.3%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 46.3% 2.16 -1.7%

Draw 22.8% 29.0% 3.45 -12.8%

Away win 31.7% 38.0% 2.63 -16.6%

Over 2.5 63.9% 73.5% 1.36 -13.1%

Over 3.5 54.3% 51.3% 1.95 +5.9%

BTTS 63.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.0%

H 46% / xG 2.1-1.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.7%

#2 2–1 8.1%

#3 2–2✓ 7.2%

#4 1–2 6.8%

#5 3–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Syrianska2.1

Nacka Iliria1.8

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 54.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SYRIANSKA · PPG 1.00

NACKA ILIRIA · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Syrianska (H) 45.5%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV -1.7%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -12.8%

Nacka Iliria (A) 31.7%

ODDS 2.63 · IMPLIED 38.0% EV -16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Syrianska face Nacka Iliria in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Syrianska a 46% chance, the draw 23% and Nacka Iliria 32%, so Syrianska are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Syrianska and 1.8 for Nacka Iliria (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Syrianska are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Nacka Iliria. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Syrianska vs Nacka Iliria Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand Predictions