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Cape Town City vs Hungry Lions Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Regular Season - 25 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:00

Cape Town City

PPG 1.83 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Hungry Lions

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.0% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+30.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-15.7%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.2%1-110.1%1-23.1%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.3%2-18.9%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.4%3-15.3%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-13.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.0% 50.0% 2.00 +30.0%

Draw 22.4% 32.3% 3.10 -30.6%

Away win 12.6% 30.3% 3.30 -58.4%

Over 2.5 42.9% 42.6% 2.35 +0.8%

Over 3.5 22.0% — — —

BTTS 38.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 19.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob38.5%

H 65% / xG 1.8-0.6 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.2%

#2 2–0 14.3%

#3 1–1 10.1%

#4 0–0✓ 9.1%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cape Town City1.8

Hungry Lions0.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.9% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CAPE TOWN CITY · PPG 1.83

HUNGRY LIONS · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.83) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Cape Town City (H) 65.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +30.0%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -30.6%

Hungry Lions (A) 12.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -58.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cape Town City face Hungry Lions in South-Africa - 1st Division on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cape Town City a 65% chance, the draw 22% and Hungry Lions 13%, so Cape Town City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Cape Town City and 0.6 for Hungry Lions (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cape Town City are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.50 for Hungry Lions. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Cape Town City vs Hungry Lions Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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