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Terengganu vs Penang Prediction— Malaysia - Super League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:00

Terengganu

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

WLD ··

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Penang

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLD ··

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-16.2%0-23.8%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.9%1-110.9%1-26.7%1-32.7%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.6%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.6%3-15.6%3-23.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.6%4+-22.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% 69.4% 1.44 -30.0%

Draw 24.3% 23.8% 4.20 +1.2%

Away win 27.1% 19.0% 5.25 +25.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 60.6% 1.65 -11.2%

Over 3.5 32.6% 39.7% 2.52 -17.8%

BTTS 54.6% 56.5% 1.77 -3.4%

Home O1.5 49.9% 66.7% 1.50 -25.1%

Away O1.5 36.8% 24.7% 4.05 +49.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 1–0 8.9%

#5 1–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Terengganu1.8

Penang1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TERENGGANU · PPG 1.30

PENANG · PPG 0.98

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

56%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Terengganu (H) 48.6%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -30.0%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +1.2%

Penang (A) 27.1%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +25.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Terengganu face Penang in Malaysia - Super League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Terengganu a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Penang 27%, so Terengganu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Terengganu and 1.2 for Penang (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Terengganu are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 0.98 for Penang. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +64.7%. This match finished 0-0.

Terengganu vs Penang Prediction— Malaysia - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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