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Tukums II vs Leevon / PPK Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 10:00

Tukums II

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLL

UPCOMING

Leevon / PPK

PPG 2.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 69% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.5% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-18.5%0-29.2%0-36.7%0-4+6.1%1 1-04.1%1-19.0%1-29.9%1-37.2%1-4+6.5%2 2-02.2%2-14.8%2-25.3%2-33.8%2-4+3.5%3 3-00.8%3-11.7%3-21.9%3-31.4%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.2% 18.2% 5.50 +10.0%

Draw 20.5% 21.1% 4.75 -1.6%

Away win 58.4% 72.5% 1.38 -19.4%

Over 2.5 64.5% 71.4% 1.40 -9.7%

Over 3.5 44.8% 50.0% 2.00 -10.4%

BTTS 61.5% 60.2% 1.66 +2.1%

Home O1.5 30.8% 33.3% 3.00 -7.6%

Away O1.5 59.3% 75.8% 1.32 -21.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -24.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob61.5%

A 58% / xG 1.1-2.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.2%

#4 1–3 7.2%

#5 0–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tukums II1.1

Leevon / PPK2.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.5% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TUKUMS II · PPG 1.00

LEEVON / PPK · PPG 2.12

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

69%

DANGER

xG gap -1.12 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Tukums II (H) 21.2%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +10.0%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -1.6%

Leevon / PPK (A) 58.4%

ODDS 1.38 · IMPLIED 72.5% EV -19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tukums II face Leevon / PPK in Latvia - 1. Liga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tukums II a 21% chance, the draw 21% and Leevon / PPK 58%, so Leevon / PPK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Tukums II and 2.2 for Leevon / PPK (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tukums II are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.12 for Leevon / PPK. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +2.1%.

Tukums II vs Leevon / PPK Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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