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Wehen Wiesbaden vs Hoffenheim B Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 38 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 11:30

Wehen Wiesbaden

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Hoffenheim B

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 67% chance

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.3%0-23.4%0-31.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-05.5%1-18.7%1-26.9%1-33.6%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.6%2-18.8%2-27.0%2-33.7%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.8%3-16.0%3-24.7%3-32.5%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-14.8%4+-23.8%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% 52.6% 1.90 -6.5%

Draw 24.5% 28.6% 3.50 -8.6%

Away win 26.3% 25.3% 3.95 +2.3%

Over 2.5 63.9% 69.0% 1.45 -7.3%

Over 3.5 48.6% 50.0% 2.00 -2.8%

BTTS 62.5% 72.5% 1.38 -13.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.5%

H 49% / xG 2.0-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–2 6.9%

#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wehen Wiesbaden2.0

Hoffenheim B1.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 48.6%

Form & verdict PPG

WEHEN WIESBADEN · PPG 1.78

HOFFENHEIM B · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

67%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.78) > Away AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

Wehen Wiesbaden (H) 49.2%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -6.5%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.6%

Hoffenheim B (A) 26.3%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wehen Wiesbaden face Hoffenheim B in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wehen Wiesbaden a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Hoffenheim B 26%, so Wehen Wiesbaden are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Wehen Wiesbaden and 1.6 for Hoffenheim B (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wehen Wiesbaden are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.11 for Hoffenheim B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Wehen Wiesbaden vs Hoffenheim B Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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