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VfB Stuttgart B vs Osnabruck Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Regular Season - 38 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 11:30

VfB Stuttgart B

PPG 1.72 · HOME

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Osnabruck

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-110.1%0-28.8%0-35.1%0-4+3.3%1 1-06.4%1-111.2%1-29.7%1-35.7%1-4+3.7%2 2-03.5%2-16.2%2-25.4%2-33.1%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.3%3-12.3%3-22.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.2% 29.0% 3.45 -1.6%

Draw 26.3% 25.6% 3.90 +1.5%

Away win 45.5% 52.6% 1.90 -13.6%

Over 2.5 54.5% 67.6% 1.48 -19.3%

Over 3.5 32.0% 45.5% 2.20 -29.6%

BTTS 54.6% 69.4% 1.44 -21.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob54.6%

A 46% / xG 1.1-1.7 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.8%

#4 0–1 10.1%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

VfB Stuttgart B1.1

Osnabruck1.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.0%

Form & verdict PPG

VFB STUTTGART B · PPG 1.72

OSNABRUCK · PPG 2.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.72) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.17)

Win probability 1X2

VfB Stuttgart B (H) 28.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -1.6%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +1.5%

Osnabruck (A) 45.5%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

VfB Stuttgart B face Osnabruck in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives VfB Stuttgart B a 28% chance, the draw 26% and Osnabruck 46%, so Osnabruck are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for VfB Stuttgart B and 1.7 for Osnabruck (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, VfB Stuttgart B are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 2.17 for Osnabruck. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.5%. This match finished 3-4.

VfB Stuttgart B vs Osnabruck Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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