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Haninge vs Karlslund Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand - 8 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 11:00

Haninge

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Karlslund

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-13.5%0-22.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-06.4%1-18.1%1-25.1%1-32.1%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.5%2-19.4%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.8%3-17.3%3-24.6%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-17.4%4+-24.7%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 69.4% 1.44 -23.1%

Draw 23.3% 20.8% 4.80 +7.1%

Away win 23.3% 20.0% 5.00 +9.9%

Over 2.5 63.9% 80.0% 1.25 -20.1%

Over 3.5 48.3% 58.8% 1.70 -17.9%

BTTS 59.7% 73.5% 1.36 -18.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 53% / xG 2.3-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.4%

#2 1–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 3–1 7.3%

#5 2–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Haninge2.3

Karlslund1.3

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 48.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HANINGE · PPG 1.33

KARLSLUND · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Haninge (H) 53.4%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -23.1%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +7.1%

Karlslund (A) 23.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +9.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Haninge face Karlslund in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Haninge a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Karlslund 23%, so Haninge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Haninge and 1.3 for Karlslund (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Haninge are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Karlslund. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Haninge vs Karlslund Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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