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Tauras vs Jonava Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 11:00

Tauras

PPG 2.25 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Jonava

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-16.0%0-23.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.8%1-110.9%1-26.0%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.8%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.3%3-15.9%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-14.0%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 58.8% 1.70 -12.6%

Draw 24.4% 28.6% 3.50 -8.8%

Away win 24.2% 24.4% 4.10 -0.5%

Over 2.5 59.1% 60.6% 1.65 -2.5%

Over 3.5 33.4% 35.7% 2.80 -6.5%

BTTS 54.6% 57.8% 1.73 -5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0✓ 8.8%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 0–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tauras1.8

Jonava1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TAURAS · PPG 2.25

JONAVA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=51.4%

Win probability 1X2

Tauras (H) 51.4%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -12.6%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.8%

Jonava (A) 24.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tauras face Jonava in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tauras a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Jonava 24%, so Tauras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Tauras and 1.1 for Jonava (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tauras are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.00 for Jonava. This match finished 2-0.

Tauras vs Jonava Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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