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M. Srbija vs Brunswick City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 08:15

M. Srbija

PPG 1.80 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Brunswick City

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-16.1%0-24.9%0-32.6%0-4+1.5%1 1-06.3%1-110.1%1-28.2%1-34.4%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.2%2-18.4%2-26.8%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-02.9%3-14.7%3-23.8%3-32.0%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.8%4+-22.3%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% 48.8% 2.05 -21.3%

Draw 25.9% 28.6% 3.50 -5.6%

Away win 35.7% 36.4% 2.75 -1.8%

Over 2.5 60.1% 66.7% 1.50 -9.8%

Over 3.5 41.5% 46.7% 2.14 -11.2%

BTTS 59.5% 69.4% 1.44 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob59.5%

H 38% / xG 1.7-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1✓ 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–0 3.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

M. Srbija1.7

Brunswick City1.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 41.5%

Form & verdict PPG

M. SRBIJA · PPG 1.80

BRUNSWICK CITY · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

M. Srbija (H) 38.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -21.3%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -5.6%

Brunswick City (A) 35.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

M. Srbija face Brunswick City in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives M. Srbija a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Brunswick City 36%, so M. Srbija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for M. Srbija and 1.6 for Brunswick City (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, M. Srbija are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.00 for Brunswick City. This match finished 2-1.

M. Srbija vs Brunswick City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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