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Altona Magic vs Preston Lions Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 08:15

Altona Magic

PPG 0.67 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Preston Lions

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 63.5% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-111.2%0-211.7%0-38.2%0-4+7.0%1 1-04.4%1-19.3%1-29.8%1-36.8%1-4+5.9%2 2-01.8%2-13.9%2-24.1%2-32.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-00.5%3-11.1%3-21.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.3% 22.2% 4.50 -26.8%

Draw 24.2% 26.3% 3.80 -4.8%

Away win 63.5% 61.0% 1.64 +4.1%

Over 2.5 59.4% 60.6% 1.65 -2.0%

Over 3.5 33.8% 38.5% 2.60 -12.1%

BTTS 52.1% 61.7% 1.62 -15.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob52.1%

A 64% / xG 0.8-2.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.7%

#2 1–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 9.8%

#4 0–1 11.2%

#5 0–3 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Altona Magic0.8

Preston Lions2.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 33.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ALTONA MAGIC · PPG 0.67

PRESTON LIONS · PPG 2.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs Home POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Altona Magic (H) 12.3%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -26.8%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -4.8%

Preston Lions (A) 63.5%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV +4.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Altona Magic face Preston Lions in Australia - Victoria NPL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Altona Magic a 12% chance, the draw 24% and Preston Lions 64%, so Preston Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Altona Magic and 2.1 for Preston Lions (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Altona Magic are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 2.17 for Preston Lions. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Altona Magic vs Preston Lions Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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