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Australia - South Australia NPL
Regular Season - 10
TK Shutter Reserve· Adelaide
Saturday, May 16, 2026
07:45
NE MetroStars
PPG 1.75
0-0
MISS
Adelaide Comets
PPG 0.25
Over3.5· +29.5%
✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
95% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
74.4%
Odds: 1.20
EV: -10.7%
Draw
17.9%
Odds: 5.40
EV: -2.0%
Away
7.8%
Odds: 10.50
EV: -10.9%
Model lean:
Over 2.5
Result: Draw ✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
78.8%
Odds: 1.33
+4.8%
Over 3.5
74.0%
Odds: 1.75
+29.5%
BTTS
52.6%
Odds: 1.73
-9.0%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘
BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st
4-0
✘
2nd
3-0
✘
3rd
5-0
✘
4th
4-1
✘
5th
3-1
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
NE MetroStars
4.24
Adelaide Comets
0.79
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5
+4.8%
ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market:
Over 2.5.
Raw EV leader:
Over3.5(+29.5%)
Verdict & Form
✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
95%
STRONG_HOME
Home team in GOOD form (1.75), Away POOR (0.25) - Strong consensus