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NE MetroStars vs Adelaide Comets Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 07:45

NE MetroStars

PPG 1.75 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Adelaide Comets

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 78.8% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-10.5%0-20.2%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-02.8%1-12.2%1-20.9%1-30.2%1-4+0.1%2 2-05.9%2-14.6%2-21.8%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.3%3-16.6%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-027.7%4+-122.0%4+-28.7%4+-32.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.4% 83.3% 1.20 -10.7%

Draw 17.9% 18.5% 5.40 -2.0%

Away win 7.8% 9.5% 10.50 -10.9%

Over 2.5 78.8% 75.2% 1.33 +4.8%

Over 3.5 74.0% 57.1% 1.75 +29.5%

BTTS 52.6% 57.8% 1.73 -9.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)4.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 74% / xG 4.2-0.8 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 8.8%

#2 3–0 8.3%

#3 5–0 7.5%

#4 4–1 7.0%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NE MetroStars4.2

Adelaide Comets0.8

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.8% · O3.5 PROB 74.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NE METROSTARS · PPG 1.75

ADELAIDE COMETS · PPG 0.25

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.75), Away POOR (0.25) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

NE MetroStars (H) 74.4%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -10.7%

Draw 17.9%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -2.0%

Adelaide Comets (A) 7.8%

ODDS 10.50 · IMPLIED 9.5% EV -10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

NE MetroStars face Adelaide Comets in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NE MetroStars a 74% chance, the draw 18% and Adelaide Comets 8%, so NE MetroStars are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.2 for NE MetroStars and 0.8 for Adelaide Comets (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NE MetroStars are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.25 for Adelaide Comets. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +29.5%. This match finished 0-0.

NE MetroStars vs Adelaide Comets Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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