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FK Beograd vs Campbelltown Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 07:30

FK Beograd

PPG 1.75 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Campbelltown

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-13.2%0-22.8%0-31.6%0-4+1.1%1 1-04.1%1-17.1%1-26.3%1-33.7%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.6%2-18.1%2-27.1%2-34.2%2-4+2.7%3 3-03.5%3-16.1%3-25.3%3-33.1%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-15.8%4+-25.1%4+-33.0%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.8% 44.4% 2.25 +14.3%

Draw 23.5% 27.0% 3.70 -7.8%

Away win 25.7% 40.0% 2.50 -21.4%

Over 2.5 63.3% 75.2% 1.33 -15.8%

Over 3.5 57.0% 55.6% 1.80 +2.6%

BTTS 63.0% 75.2% 1.33 -16.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.0%

H 51% / xG 2.3-1.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.1%

#2 2–1 8.1%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.3%

#5 3–1✓ 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FK Beograd2.3

Campbelltown1.8

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 57.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FK BEOGRAD · PPG 1.75

CAMPBELLTOWN · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

FK Beograd (H) 50.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +14.3%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -7.8%

Campbelltown (A) 25.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -21.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

FK Beograd face Campbelltown in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FK Beograd a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Campbelltown 26%, so FK Beograd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for FK Beograd and 1.8 for Campbelltown (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FK Beograd are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.40 for Campbelltown. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.3%. This match finished 3-1.

FK Beograd vs Campbelltown Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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