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North Geelong vs Langwarrin Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 07:00

North Geelong

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Langwarrin

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-12.0%0-21.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.4%1 1-03.8%1-15.7%1-24.3%1-32.2%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.2%2-18.0%2-26.0%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.9%3-17.4%3-25.6%3-32.8%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-110.1%4+-27.7%4+-33.9%4+-4+2.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% — — —

Draw 22.4% — — —

Away win 23.2% — — —

Over 2.5 69.8% — — —

Over 3.5 62.4% — — —

BTTS 63.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.0%

H 54% / xG 2.8-1.5 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.0%

#2 3–1 7.4%

#3 1–1 5.7%

#4 2–2 6.0%

#5 3–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

North Geelong2.8

Langwarrin1.5

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 62.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTH GEELONG · PPG 2.00

LANGWARRIN · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=54.4%

Win probability 1X2

North Geelong (H) 54.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Langwarrin (A) 23.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

North Geelong face Langwarrin in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives North Geelong a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Langwarrin 23%, so North Geelong are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for North Geelong and 1.5 for Langwarrin (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, North Geelong are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.33 for Langwarrin. This match finished 2-4.

North Geelong vs Langwarrin Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Victoria NPL 2 Predictions