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Dandenong T. vs St. Albans Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 07:00

Dandenong T.

PPG 0.83 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

St. Albans

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-18.7%0-24.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.9%1-112.5%1-26.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.0%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.5%3-14.3%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.7% 40.8% 2.45 +16.9%

Draw 27.9% 28.6% 3.50 -1.4%

Away win 24.4% 40.8% 2.45 -24.1%

Over 2.5 47.4% 60.6% 1.65 -21.8%

Over 3.5 22.5% 38.5% 2.60 -24.9%

BTTS 52.1% 66.7% 1.50 -21.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.1%

H 48% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 0–0 8.9%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dandenong T.1.4

St. Albans1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DANDENONG T. · PPG 0.83

ST. ALBANS · PPG 1.50

⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength

70%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.50) strong but model favors Home (P=47.7%)

Win probability 1X2

Dandenong T. (H) 47.7%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +16.9%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -1.4%

St. Albans (A) 24.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -24.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dandenong T. face St. Albans in Australia - Victoria NPL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dandenong T. a 48% chance, the draw 28% and St. Albans 24%, so Dandenong T. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Dandenong T. and 1.0 for St. Albans (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dandenong T. are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 1.50 for St. Albans. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +16.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Dandenong T. vs St. Albans Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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