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West Adelaide vs West Torrens Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 05:30

West Adelaide

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

West Torrens

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 78.8% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a clear edge.

+10.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-12.1%0-22.7%0-32.4%0-4+3.0%1 1-01.7%1-14.6%1-26.0%1-35.3%1-4+6.5%2 2-01.9%2-15.1%2-26.7%2-35.9%2-4+7.2%3 3-01.4%3-13.7%3-24.9%3-34.3%3-4+5.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-13.5%4+-24.6%4+-34.0%4+-4+4.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 32.3% 3.10 +9.1%

Draw 22.6% 25.6% 3.90 -7.1%

Away win 42.3% 54.1% 1.85 -21.8%

Over 2.5 78.8% 71.4% 1.40 +10.3%

Over 3.5 71.2% 52.6% 1.90 +35.3%

BTTS 66.7% 71.4% 1.40 -6.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob66.7%

A 42% / xG 2.2-2.6 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.7%

#2 1–2✓ 6.0%

#3 2–3 5.9%

#4 1–3 5.3%

#5 1–1 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

West Adelaide2.2

West Torrens2.6

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.8% · O3.5 PROB 71.2%

Form & verdict PPG

WEST ADELAIDE · PPG 1.50

WEST TORRENS · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

West Adelaide (H) 35.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +9.1%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -7.1%

West Torrens (A) 42.3%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

West Adelaide face West Torrens in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives West Adelaide a 35% chance, the draw 23% and West Torrens 42%, so West Torrens are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for West Adelaide and 2.6 for West Torrens (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, West Adelaide are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.75 for West Torrens. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +35.3%. This match finished 1-2.

West Adelaide vs West Torrens Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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