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Sturt Lions vs Croydon Kings Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 05:30

Sturt Lions

PPG 1.20 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Croydon Kings

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-13.1%0-22.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-04.7%1-17.3%1-25.8%1-33.0%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.5%2-18.6%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+2.0%3 3-04.3%3-16.7%3-25.3%3-32.8%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-16.9%4+-25.4%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.1% — — —

Draw 23.6% — — —

Away win 24.3% — — —

Over 2.5 63.3% — — —

Over 3.5 55.0% — — —

BTTS 63.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.0%

H 52% / xG 2.3-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.6%

#2 1–1 7.3%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 3–1 6.7%

#5 1–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sturt Lions2.3

Croydon Kings1.6

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 55.0%

Form & verdict PPG

STURT LIONS · PPG 1.20

CROYDON KINGS · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Sturt Lions (H) 52.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Croydon Kings (A) 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sturt Lions face Croydon Kings in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sturt Lions a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Croydon Kings 24%, so Sturt Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Sturt Lions and 1.6 for Croydon Kings (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sturt Lions are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.33 for Croydon Kings. This match finished 0-2.

Sturt Lions vs Croydon Kings Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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