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Playford P. vs Adelaide City Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 05:30

Playford P.

PPG 3.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Adelaide City

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-12.8%0-22.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-04.2%1-16.8%1-25.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.2%2-18.3%2-26.7%2-33.6%2-4+2.1%3 3-04.2%3-16.8%3-25.5%3-32.9%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-17.4%4+-26.0%4+-33.2%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.1% 46.5% 2.15 +12.0%

Draw 23.6% 26.7% 3.75 -6.9%

Away win 24.2% 38.5% 2.60 -22.3%

Over 2.5 63.3% 71.4% 1.40 -11.4%

Over 3.5 57.6% 50.0% 2.00 +15.2%

BTTS 63.0% 73.5% 1.36 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.0%

H 52% / xG 2.4-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.3%

#2 1–1 6.8%

#3 3–1 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 1–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Playford P.2.4

Adelaide City1.6

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 57.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PLAYFORD P. · PPG 3.00

ADELAIDE CITY · PPG 1.40

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=52.1%

Win probability 1X2

Playford P. (H) 52.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +12.0%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.9%

Adelaide City (A) 24.2%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -22.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Playford P. face Adelaide City in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Playford P. a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Adelaide City 24%, so Playford P. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Playford P. and 1.6 for Adelaide City (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Playford P. are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.40 for Adelaide City. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Playford P. vs Adelaide City Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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