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Para Hills vs Adelaide Utd B Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 05:30

Para Hills

PPG 0.40 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Adelaide Utd B

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 78.8% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-12.8%0-25.2%0-36.5%0-4+15.9%1 1-00.9%1-13.3%1-26.1%1-37.5%1-4+18.6%2 2-00.5%2-11.9%2-23.5%2-34.4%2-4+10.8%3 3-00.2%3-10.7%3-21.4%3-31.7%3-4+4.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.5% 10.8% 9.25 +9.4%

Draw 21.2% 17.2% 5.80 +13.8%

Away win 66.3% 84.7% 1.18 -21.8%

Over 2.5 78.8% 82.0% 1.22 -3.9%

Over 3.5 71.9% 66.7% 1.50 +7.8%

BTTS 59.5% 69.4% 1.44 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)3.7 BTTS prob59.5%

A 66% / xG 1.2-3.7 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.5%

#2 1–4 7.0%

#3 0–3 6.5%

#4 1–2 6.1%

#5 0–4 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Para Hills1.2

Adelaide Utd B3.7

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.8% · O3.5 PROB 71.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PARA HILLS · PPG 0.40

ADELAIDE UTD B · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.60) vs Home POOR (0.40)

Win probability 1X2

Para Hills (H) 12.5%

ODDS 9.25 · IMPLIED 10.8% EV +9.4%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +13.8%

Adelaide Utd B (A) 66.3%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Para Hills face Adelaide Utd B in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Para Hills a 13% chance, the draw 21% and Adelaide Utd B 66%, so Adelaide Utd B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Para Hills and 3.7 for Adelaide Utd B (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Para Hills are averaging 0.40 points per game versus 1.60 for Adelaide Utd B. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +13.8%. This match finished 0-2.

Para Hills vs Adelaide Utd B Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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