Today / Australia - Victoria NPL 2 / North Sunshine vs Western Utd B

North Sunshine vs Western Utd B Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 05:00

North Sunshine

PPG 0.75 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Western Utd B

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.8% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-13.0%0-23.1%0-32.2%0-4+1.9%1 1-03.0%1-16.4%1-26.8%1-34.8%1-4+4.1%2 2-03.2%2-16.9%2-27.3%2-35.1%2-4+4.4%3 3-02.3%3-14.9%3-25.2%3-33.7%3-4+3.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-14.3%4+-24.6%4+-33.2%4+-4+2.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.2% 54.1% 1.85 -23.8%

Draw 23.6% 26.3% 3.80 -6.2%

Away win 35.2% 33.3% 3.00 +5.6%

Over 2.5 68.8% 75.2% 1.33 -8.5%

Over 3.5 61.7% 56.8% 1.76 +8.6%

BTTS 66.7% 76.9% 1.30 -13.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob66.7%

H 41% / xG 2.1-2.1 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.4%

#2 2–2 7.3%

#3 2–1 6.9%

#4 1–2 6.8%

#5 3–2✓ 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

North Sunshine2.1

Western Utd B2.1

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.8% · O3.5 PROB 61.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTH SUNSHINE · PPG 0.75

WESTERN UTD B · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.75), Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

North Sunshine (H) 41.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -23.8%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -6.2%

Western Utd B (A) 35.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

North Sunshine face Western Utd B in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives North Sunshine a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Western Utd B 35%, so North Sunshine are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for North Sunshine and 2.1 for Western Utd B (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, North Sunshine are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.60 for Western Utd B. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 3-2.

North Sunshine vs Western Utd B Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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