Today / Leixoes vs Lusitania FC
Leixoes vs Lusitania FC Prediction
Friday, May 15, 2026
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 38% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 35.6%
Form & verdict
LEIXOES · PPG 1.38
LUSITANIA FC · PPG 1.31
Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away AVERAGE (1.31)
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Leixoes face Lusitania FC on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leixoes a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Lusitania FC 36%, so Leixoes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Leixoes and 1.5 for Lusitania FC (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leixoes are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.31 for Lusitania FC.