Today / Australia - Victoria NPL / Green Gully vs Melbourne C. B

Green Gully vs Melbourne C. B Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 13 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 09:30

Green Gully

PPG 0.20 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Melbourne C. B

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 68.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a clear edge.

+11.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-18.4%0-212.6%0-312.7%0-4+20.3%1 1-01.6%1-14.7%1-27.1%1-37.2%1-4+11.5%2 2-00.4%2-11.3%2-22.0%2-32.0%2-4+3.2%3 3-00.1%3-10.3%3-20.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 9.3% 22.7% 4.40 -35.4%

Draw 21.9% 25.3% 3.95 -8.1%

Away win 68.8% 61.7% 1.62 +11.5%

Over 2.5 63.3% 61.7% 1.62 +2.5%

Over 3.5 48.2% 40.0% 2.50 +20.5%

BTTS 48.1% 62.5% 1.60 -23.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 4 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)3.0 BTTS prob48.1%

A 69% / xG 0.6-3.0 / O2.5 63% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 12.7%

#2 0–2 12.6%

#3 0–4 9.6%

#4 0–1 8.4%

#5 1–3✓ 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Green Gully0.6

Melbourne C. B3.0

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 48.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GREEN GULLY · PPG 0.20

MELBOURNE C. B · PPG 1.83

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.83) vs Home POOR (0.20)

Win probability 1X2

Green Gully (H) 9.3%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -35.4%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -8.1%

Melbourne C. B (A) 68.8%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +11.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Green Gully face Melbourne C. B in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Green Gully a 9% chance, the draw 22% and Melbourne C. B 69%, so Melbourne C. B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Green Gully and 3.0 for Melbourne C. B (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Green Gully are averaging 0.20 points per game versus 1.83 for Melbourne C. B. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.5%. This match finished 1-3.

Green Gully vs Melbourne C. B Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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