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Dandenong City vs Oakleigh C. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 13 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 09:45

Dandenong City

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Oakleigh C.

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 63.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-19.9%0-210.7%0-37.7%0-4+6.8%1 1-04.3%1-19.2%1-29.9%1-37.1%1-4+6.3%2 2-02.0%2-14.2%2-24.6%2-33.3%2-4+2.9%3 3-00.6%3-11.3%3-21.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.4% 16.7% 6.00 -15.4%

Draw 24.0% 23.8% 4.20 +0.5%

Away win 63.5% 69.4% 1.44 -8.6%

Over 2.5 59.7% 64.5% 1.55 -7.5%

Over 3.5 37.0% 42.6% 2.35 -13.1%

BTTS 52.6% 60.6% 1.65 -13.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob52.6%

A 64% / xG 0.9-2.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.7%

#2 1–1✓ 9.2%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 0–3 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dandenong City0.9

Oakleigh C.2.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DANDENONG CITY · PPG 1.33

OAKLEIGH C. · PPG 2.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs Home AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Dandenong City (H) 12.4%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -15.4%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +0.5%

Oakleigh C. (A) 63.5%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dandenong City face Oakleigh C. in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dandenong City a 12% chance, the draw 24% and Oakleigh C. 64%, so Oakleigh C. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Dandenong City and 2.2 for Oakleigh C. (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dandenong City are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.20 for Oakleigh C.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Dandenong City vs Oakleigh C. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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