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Aston Villa vs Liverpool Prediction— England - Premier League

Regular Season - 37 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 19:00

Aston Villa

PPG 1.94 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Liverpool

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-18.0%0-25.3%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.0%1-111.9%1-27.8%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-18.8%2-25.8%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.3%3-14.4%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.9% 37.3% 2.68 +9.6%

Draw 25.4% 28.2% 3.55 -5.9%

Away win 33.7% 41.7% 2.40 -19.1%

Over 2.5 52.3% 61.7% 1.62 -15.3%

Over 3.5 30.9% 39.2% 2.55 -21.2%

BTTS 56.4% 66.7% 1.50 -15.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob56.4%

H 41% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 0–0 6.1%

#4 1–2 7.8%

#5 1–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aston Villa1.5

Liverpool1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ASTON VILLA · PPG 1.94

LIVERPOOL · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.94) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Aston Villa (H) 40.9%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV +9.6%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -5.9%

Liverpool (A) 33.7%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -19.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aston Villa face Liverpool in England - Premier League on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aston Villa a 41% chance, the draw 25% and Liverpool 34%, so Aston Villa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Aston Villa and 1.3 for Liverpool (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aston Villa are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.33 for Liverpool. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.6%. This match finished 4-2.

Aston Villa vs Liverpool Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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