Aston Villa vs Liverpool Prediction & Tips

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England - Premier League Regular Season - 37 Villa Park· Birmingham Friday, May 15, 2026 19:00

Aston Villa PPG 1.94

4-2 MISS

Liverpool PPG 1.33

Home· +9.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 40.9%

Odds: 2.68 EV: +9.6%

Draw 25.4%

Odds: 3.55 EV: -5.9%

Away 33.7%

Odds: 2.40 EV: -19.1%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 52.3% Odds: 1.62 -15.3%

Over 3.5 30.9% Odds: 2.55 -21.2%

BTTS 56.4% Odds: 1.50 -15.4%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Aston Villa

1.49

Liverpool

1.32

Model SuggestionBTTS -15.4% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -15.4% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+9.6%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.94) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)