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Korona Kielce vs Widzew Lodz Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 33 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 18:30

Korona Kielce

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Widzew Lodz

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-110.5%0-25.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.3%1-113.2%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.3%2-18.3%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.5%3-13.5%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 40.3% 2.48 +7.6%

Draw 30.1% 30.3% 3.30 -0.7%

Away win 26.5% 36.4% 2.75 -16.3%

Over 2.5 45.8% 50.0% 2.00 -8.4%

Over 3.5 19.0% 28.2% 3.55 -19.5%

BTTS 52.1% 57.1% 1.75 -8.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.1%

H 43% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.6%

#3 1–0✓ 13.3%

#4 0–1 10.5%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Korona Kielce1.3

Widzew Lodz1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 19.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KORONA KIELCE · PPG 1.44

WIDZEW LODZ · PPG 0.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

56%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.44) > Away POOR (0.69)

Win probability 1X2

Korona Kielce (H) 43.4%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV +7.6%

Draw 30.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -0.7%

Widzew Lodz (A) 26.5%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Korona Kielce face Widzew Lodz in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Korona Kielce a 43% chance, the draw 30% and Widzew Lodz 27%, so Korona Kielce are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Korona Kielce and 1.0 for Widzew Lodz (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Korona Kielce are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.69 for Widzew Lodz. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Korona Kielce vs Widzew Lodz Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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