Korona Kielce vs Widzew Lodz Prediction & Tips

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Poland - Ekstraklasa Regular Season - 33 Exbud Arena· Kielce Friday, May 15, 2026 18:30

Korona Kielce PPG 1.44

1-0 HIT CS3

Widzew Lodz PPG 0.69

Home· +7.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 43.4%

Odds: 2.48 EV: +7.6%

Draw 30.1%

Odds: 3.30 EV: -0.7%

Away 26.5%

Odds: 2.75 EV: -16.3%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 45.8% Odds: 2.00 -8.4%

Over 3.5 19.0% Odds: 3.55 -19.5%

BTTS 52.1% Odds: 1.75 -8.8%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✔

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Korona Kielce

1.25

Widzew Lodz

0.99

Model SuggestionBTTS -8.8% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -8.8% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+7.6%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.44) > Away POOR (0.69)