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Ragsved vs Farsta Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand - 8 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 18:00

Ragsved

PPG 3.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Farsta

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-12.0%0-21.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.4%1-15.9%1-23.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.9%2-18.5%2-24.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.6%3-18.2%3-24.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-011.2%4+-112.1%4+-26.5%4+-32.3%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.9% 54.6% 1.83 +11.5%

Draw 20.7% 26.3% 3.80 -12.8%

Away win 18.4% 29.0% 3.45 -21.9%

Over 2.5 63.3% 69.0% 1.45 -8.2%

Over 3.5 56.1% 47.6% 2.10 +17.8%

BTTS 58.6% 70.4% 1.42 -16.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.6%

H 61% / xG 2.9-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.5%

#2 3–1 8.2%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 3–0 7.6%

#5 1–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ragsved2.9

Farsta1.1

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 56.1%

Form & verdict PPG

RAGSVED · PPG 3.00

FARSTA · PPG 0.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Ragsved (H) 60.9%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV +11.5%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -12.8%

Farsta (A) 18.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ragsved face Farsta in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ragsved a 61% chance, the draw 21% and Farsta 18%, so Ragsved are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Ragsved and 1.1 for Farsta (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ragsved are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Farsta. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.8%. This match finished 0-1.

Ragsved vs Farsta Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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