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Forward vs Orebro S. Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand - 8 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 16:30

Forward

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Orebro S.

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-17.9%0-25.0%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.4%1-111.9%1-27.5%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-19.0%2-25.7%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.6%3-14.5%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 42.9% 2.33 +4.2%

Draw 26.7% 28.6% 3.50 -3.9%

Away win 28.5% 38.5% 2.60 -15.5%

Over 2.5 52.3% 65.4% 1.53 -20.0%

Over 3.5 30.2% 43.5% 2.30 -30.5%

BTTS 54.6% 70.4% 1.42 -22.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 0–0 6.2%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Forward1.5

Orebro S.1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FORWARD · PPG 1.50

OREBRO S. · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Forward (H) 44.7%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +4.2%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.9%

Orebro S. (A) 28.5%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -15.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Forward face Orebro S. in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Forward a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Orebro S. 28%, so Forward are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Forward and 1.3 for Orebro S. (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Forward are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.75 for Orebro S.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Forward vs Orebro S. Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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