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Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 33 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 16:00

Zaglebie Lubin

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Pogon Szczecin

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 55% chance

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-17.1%0-23.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.9%1-111.7%1-25.7%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.8%2-19.6%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.4%3-15.3%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 40.7% 2.46 +26.4%

Draw 25.0% 28.6% 3.50 -7.5%

Away win 23.6% 37.9% 2.64 -22.6%

Over 2.5 52.3% 55.6% 1.80 -5.9%

Over 3.5 26.9% 33.3% 3.00 -11.6%

BTTS 52.2% 60.6% 1.65 -13.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.2%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 11.9%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zaglebie Lubin1.6

Pogon Szczecin1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 26.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ZAGLEBIE LUBIN · PPG 1.69

POGON SZCZECIN · PPG 0.75

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.69) vs P(Home)=51.4%

Win probability 1X2

Zaglebie Lubin (H) 51.4%

ODDS 2.46 · IMPLIED 40.7% EV +26.4%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.5%

Pogon Szczecin (A) 23.6%

ODDS 2.64 · IMPLIED 37.9% EV -22.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zaglebie Lubin face Pogon Szczecin in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Pogon Szczecin 24%, so Zaglebie Lubin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.0 for Pogon Szczecin (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.75 for Pogon Szczecin. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +26.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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