Today / Safa vs Cebrayil

Safa vs Cebrayil Prediction

Friday, May 15, 2026

Safa

PPG 2.08 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Cebrayil

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.08), Away POOR (0.38) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-12.2%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.7%1-16.2%1-22.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.8%2-18.6%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.0%3-18.0%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-013.7%4+-110.9%4+-24.4%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.4% — — —

Draw 22.6% — — —

Away win 9.9% — — —

Over 2.5 63.3% — — —

Over 3.5 48.1% — — —

BTTS 52.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.4%

H 67% / xG 2.8-0.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.8%

#2 3–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 1–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Safa2.8

Cebrayil0.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 48.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SAFA · PPG 2.08

CEBRAYIL · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.08), Away POOR (0.38) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Safa (H) 67.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Cebrayil (A) 9.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Safa face Cebrayil on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Safa a 67% chance, the draw 23% and Cebrayil 10%, so Safa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Safa and 0.8 for Cebrayil (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Safa are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 0.38 for Cebrayil. This match finished 1-0.

Safa vs Cebrayil Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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