Today / Henan SL vs Shenzhen

Henan SL vs Shenzhen Prediction

Friday, May 15, 2026

Henan SL

PPG 1.40 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Shenzhen

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs P(Home)=51.4%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-17.5%0-23.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.2%1-111.9%1-25.8%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.5%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.1%3-15.0%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% — — —

Draw 25.0% — — —

Away win 23.6% — — —

Over 2.5 49.7% — — —

Over 3.5 25.6% — — —

BTTS 52.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.1%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 2–0✓ 9.7%

#4 0–0 7.7%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Henan SL1.6

Shenzhen1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.7% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HENAN SL · PPG 1.40

SHENZHEN · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs P(Home)=51.4%

Win probability 1X2

Henan SL (H) 51.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Shenzhen (A) 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Henan SL face Shenzhen on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Henan SL a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Shenzhen 24%, so Henan SL are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Henan SL and 1.0 for Shenzhen (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Henan SL are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.20 for Shenzhen. This match finished 2-0.

Henan SL vs Shenzhen Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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