Today / Australia - Victoria NPL 2 / Northcote City vs Bulleen

Northcote City vs Bulleen Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 13 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 10:30

Northcote City

PPG 2.60 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Bulleen

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-17.6%0-23.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.6%1-111.9%1-25.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.5%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.3%3-15.0%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.8%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 63.7% 1.57 -19.3%

Draw 25.0% 25.0% 4.00 0.0%

Away win 23.6% 23.1% 4.33 +1.3%

Over 2.5 48.1% 63.7% 1.57 -24.5%

Over 3.5 24.9% 42.4% 2.36 -24.7%

BTTS 52.1% 62.5% 1.60 -16.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.1%

H 51% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.9%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 2–0 10.0%

#4 0–0 8.0%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Northcote City1.6

Bulleen0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.1% · O3.5 PROB 24.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTHCOTE CITY · PPG 2.60

BULLEEN · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.60) > Away GOOD (1.83)

Win probability 1X2

Northcote City (H) 51.4%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -19.3%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV 0.0%

Bulleen (A) 23.6%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Northcote City face Bulleen in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Northcote City a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Bulleen 24%, so Northcote City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Northcote City and 0.9 for Bulleen (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Northcote City are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 1.83 for Bulleen. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Northcote City vs Bulleen Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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