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Melbourne K. vs Eltham Redbacks Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 13 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 10:30

Melbourne K.

PPG 2.67 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Eltham Redbacks

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 56.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.3%0-23.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.0%1-111.1%1-26.1%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.8%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.2%3-15.7%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.8%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 57.8% 1.73 -11.1%

Draw 25.0% 27.8% 3.60 -6.0%

Away win 23.6% 27.0% 3.70 -7.6%

Over 2.5 56.6% 59.9% 1.67 -5.5%

Over 3.5 32.3% 39.7% 2.52 -18.6%

BTTS 54.6% 62.5% 1.60 -12.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Melbourne K.1.8

Eltham Redbacks1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.6% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MELBOURNE K. · PPG 2.67

ELTHAM REDBACKS · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs P(Home)=51.4%

Win probability 1X2

Melbourne K. (H) 51.4%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -11.1%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.0%

Eltham Redbacks (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Melbourne K. face Eltham Redbacks in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Melbourne K. a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Eltham Redbacks 24%, so Melbourne K. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Melbourne K. and 1.1 for Eltham Redbacks (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Melbourne K. are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 1.50 for Eltham Redbacks. This match finished 4-0.

Melbourne K. vs Eltham Redbacks Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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