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Bentleigh G. vs Heidelberg Utd Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 13 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 10:30

Bentleigh G.

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Heidelberg Utd

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-18.9%0-29.1%0-36.2%0-4+5.1%1 1-04.8%1-19.7%1-29.9%1-36.7%1-4+5.5%2 2-02.6%2-15.3%2-25.4%2-33.7%2-4+3.0%3 3-00.9%3-11.9%3-22.0%3-31.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.0% 17.4% 5.75 +19.4%

Draw 24.6% 24.4% 4.10 +0.5%

Away win 52.5% 67.6% 1.48 -22.3%

Over 2.5 60.1% 58.8% 1.70 +2.2%

Over 3.5 38.2% 36.4% 2.75 +5.1%

BTTS 58.6% 55.6% 1.80 +5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob58.6%

A 52% / xG 1.1-2.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.1%

#4 0–1 8.9%

#5 1–3 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bentleigh G.1.1

Heidelberg Utd2.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BENTLEIGH G. · PPG 1.67

HEIDELBERG UTD · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.67) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Bentleigh G. (H) 23.0%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +19.4%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +0.5%

Heidelberg Utd (A) 52.5%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -22.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bentleigh G. face Heidelberg Utd in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bentleigh G. a 23% chance, the draw 25% and Heidelberg Utd 53%, so Heidelberg Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Bentleigh G. and 2.0 for Heidelberg Utd (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bentleigh G. are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.00 for Heidelberg Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +19.4%. This match finished 2-2.

Bentleigh G. vs Heidelberg Utd Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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