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Sleipner vs Smedby Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand - 8 ·Thursday, May 14, 2026, 16:30

Sleipner

PPG 2.33 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Smedby

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-12.8%0-23.2%0-32.4%0-4+2.3%1 1-02.7%1-16.0%1-26.8%1-35.1%1-4+4.9%2 2-02.8%2-16.4%2-27.2%2-35.4%2-4+5.2%3 3-02.0%3-14.5%3-25.1%3-33.8%3-4+3.6%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-13.9%4+-24.4%4+-33.3%4+-4+3.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 46.5% 2.15 -20.9%

Draw 23.3% 26.3% 3.80 -6.9%

Away win 39.9% 37.7% 2.65 +5.7%

Over 2.5 69.8% 69.0% 1.45 +1.2%

Over 3.5 63.6% 46.5% 2.15 +36.7%

BTTS 66.7% 71.4% 1.40 -6.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob66.7%

A 40% / xG 2.1-2.3 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.2%

#2 1–1✓ 6.0%

#3 1–2 6.8%

#4 2–1 6.4%

#5 2–3 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sleipner2.1

Smedby2.3

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 63.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SLEIPNER · PPG 2.33

SMEDBY · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Sleipner (H) 36.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -20.9%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -6.9%

Smedby (A) 39.9%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +5.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sleipner face Smedby in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sleipner a 37% chance, the draw 23% and Smedby 40%, so Smedby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Sleipner and 2.3 for Smedby (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sleipner are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 2.00 for Smedby. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +36.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Sleipner vs Smedby Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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