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Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Lodz Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 29 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:45

Radomiak Radom

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDLL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Widzew Lodz

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLW

// Model verdict

Home 44% chance

Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 36.5% — a clear edge.

+67.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-14.7%0-22.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.3%1-19.6%1-25.0%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.6%3-16.8%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-15.7%4+-22.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.2% 36.5% 2.74 +67.7%

Draw 20.7% 29.9% 3.35 -30.6%

Away win 18.2% 40.7% 2.46 -55.2%

Over 2.5 59.9% 47.6% 2.10 +25.8%

Over 3.5 37.5% 26.0% 3.85 +44.4%

BTTS 56.3% 54.6% 1.83 +3.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob56.3%

H 61% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 9.9%

#2 1–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 3–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Radomiak Radom2.1

Widzew Lodz1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

RADOMIAK RADOM · PPG 1.79

WIDZEW LODZ · PPG 0.79

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

44%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.79) vs P(Home)=61.2%

Win probability 1X2

Radomiak Radom (H) 61.2%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV +67.7%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -30.6%

Widzew Lodz (A) 18.2%

ODDS 2.46 · IMPLIED 40.7% EV -55.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Radomiak Radom face Widzew Lodz in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Radomiak Radom a 61% chance, the draw 21% and Widzew Lodz 18%, so Radomiak Radom are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Radomiak Radom and 1.0 for Widzew Lodz (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 0.79 for Widzew Lodz. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +67.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Lodz Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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