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Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Lodz Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Poland - Ekstraklasa logo Poland flag Poland - Ekstraklasa Regular Season - 29 Stadion im. Braci Czachorów· Radom Saturday, April 18, 2026 12:45
Radomiak Radom logo Radomiak Radom PPG 1.79
2-1 HIT MostLikelyScore
Widzew Lodz logo Widzew Lodz PPG 0.79
Home· +67.7% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Radomiak Radom face Widzew Lodz in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Radomiak Radom a 61% chance, the draw 21% and Widzew Lodz 18%, so Radomiak Radom are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Radomiak Radom and 1.0 for Widzew Lodz (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 0.79 for Widzew Lodz. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +67.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 61.2%
Odds: 2.74 EV: +67.7%
Draw 20.7%
Odds: 3.35 EV: -30.6%
Away 18.2%
Odds: 2.46 EV: -55.2%
Model lean: Home
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.9% Odds: 2.10 +25.8%
Over 3.5 37.5% Odds: 3.85 +44.4%
BTTS 56.3% Odds: 1.83 +3.0%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1
2nd 1-1
3rd 2-0
4th 1-0
5th 3-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Radomiak Radom
2.07
Widzew Lodz
1.03

Model Suggestion

Home +67.7% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home.

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
95%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.79) vs P(Home)=61.2%

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