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Lens vs Paris SG Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 29 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 19:00

Lens

PPG 2.63 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLW

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Paris SG

PPG 2.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 64% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-18.5%0-25.6%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.1%1-112.1%1-28.0%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.5%2-18.6%2-25.7%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.1%3-14.1%3-22.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.0%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.3% 31.3% 3.20 +22.6%

Draw 26.4% 25.6% 3.90 +1.8%

Away win 35.3% 50.0% 2.00 -29.4%

Over 2.5 52.3% 64.5% 1.55 -18.9%

Over 3.5 29.5% 42.6% 2.35 -18.4%

BTTS 54.6% 67.6% 1.48 -19.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

H 38% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 0–0 6.4%

#4 1–2 8.0%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lens1.4

Paris SG1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LENS · PPG 2.63

PARIS SG · PPG 2.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

64%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.63) > Away EXCELLENT (2.13)

Win probability 1X2

Lens (H) 38.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +22.6%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +1.8%

Paris SG (A) 35.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -29.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lens face Paris SG in France - Ligue 1 on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lens a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Paris SG 35%, so Lens are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Lens and 1.3 for Paris SG (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lens are averaging 2.63 points per game versus 2.13 for Paris SG. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.6%. This match finished 0-2.

Lens vs Paris SG Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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