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Manchester City vs Crystal Palace Prediction— England - Premier League

Regular Season - 31 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 19:00

Manchester City

PPG 2.47 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Crystal Palace

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-14.8%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.1%1-19.6%1-23.5%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.0%2-19.5%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.6%3-16.3%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-14.9%4+-21.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.7% 83.3% 1.20 -33.2%

Draw 25.3% 14.8% 6.75 +42.5%

Away win 19.0% 8.7% 11.50 +71.1%

Over 2.5 52.3% 71.4% 1.40 -26.8%

Over 3.5 29.0% 50.0% 2.00 -25.2%

BTTS 50.2% 51.8% 1.93 -3.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob50.2%

H 56% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.0%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 1–1 9.6%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 3–0✓ 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manchester City2.0

Crystal Palace0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MANCHESTER CITY · PPG 2.47

CRYSTAL PALACE · PPG 1.35

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.47) vs P(Home)=55.7%

Win probability 1X2

Manchester City (H) 55.7%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -33.2%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV +42.5%

Crystal Palace (A) 19.0%

ODDS 11.50 · IMPLIED 8.7% EV +71.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manchester City face Crystal Palace in England - Premier League on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manchester City a 56% chance, the draw 25% and Crystal Palace 19%, so Manchester City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Manchester City and 0.7 for Crystal Palace (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manchester City are averaging 2.47 points per game versus 1.35 for Crystal Palace. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +71.1%. This match finished 3-0.

Manchester City vs Crystal Palace Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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