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Rakow C. vs Jagiellonia Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 31 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 18:30

Rakow C.

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWW

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Jagiellonia

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-19.7%0-25.5%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.5%1-112.9%1-27.2%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.6%2-18.5%2-24.8%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.3%3-13.8%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.6% 47.6% 2.10 -10.5%

Draw 29.2% 28.2% 3.55 +2.2%

Away win 28.2% 31.3% 3.20 -5.9%

Over 2.5 47.4% 55.6% 1.80 -14.7%

Over 3.5 23.1% 33.3% 3.00 -18.4%

BTTS 52.1% 60.6% 1.65 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.1%

H 43% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.7%

#3 1–0 11.5%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 0–1 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rakow C.1.3

Jagiellonia1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 23.1%

Form & verdict PPG

RAKOW C. · PPG 1.67

JAGIELLONIA · PPG 1.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

Rakow C. (H) 42.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -10.5%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +2.2%

Jagiellonia (A) 28.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rakow C. face Jagiellonia in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rakow C. a 43% chance, the draw 29% and Jagiellonia 28%, so Rakow C. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Rakow C. and 1.1 for Jagiellonia (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rakow C. are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.47 for Jagiellonia. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.2%. This match finished 0-2.

Rakow C. vs Jagiellonia Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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