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Ahlafors vs Herrestads Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland - 8 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 17:00

Ahlafors

PPG 1.25 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Herrestads

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.8% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-12.7%0-22.7%0-31.8%0-4+1.4%1 1-03.1%1-16.1%1-26.2%1-34.1%1-4+3.3%2 2-03.6%2-17.1%2-27.2%2-34.8%2-4+3.8%3 3-02.7%3-15.5%3-25.5%3-33.7%3-4+2.9%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-15.5%4+-25.5%4+-33.7%4+-4+3.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 42.6% 2.35 +5.5%

Draw 22.4% 28.2% 3.55 -12.3%

Away win 32.7% 39.2% 2.55 -16.6%

Over 2.5 69.8% 63.7% 1.57 +9.6%

Over 3.5 62.8% 40.8% 2.45 +53.9%

BTTS 66.7% 69.0% 1.45 -3.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob66.7%

H 45% / xG 2.3-2.0 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.2%

#2 2–1 7.1%

#3 1–1 6.1%

#4 1–2 6.2%

#5 3–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ahlafors2.3

Herrestads2.0

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 62.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AHLAFORS · PPG 1.25

HERRESTADS · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Ahlafors (H) 44.9%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +5.5%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -12.3%

Herrestads (A) 32.7%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ahlafors face Herrestads in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ahlafors a 45% chance, the draw 22% and Herrestads 33%, so Ahlafors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Ahlafors and 2.0 for Herrestads (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ahlafors are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.67 for Herrestads. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +53.9%. This match finished 5-0.

Ahlafors vs Herrestads Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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