Today / Brest vs Strasbourg

Brest vs Strasbourg Prediction

Wednesday, May 13, 2026

Brest

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Strasbourg

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-17.5%0-25.6%0-32.8%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.5%1-111.2%1-28.4%1-34.2%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.6%2-18.4%2-26.3%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.8%3-14.2%3-23.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.2%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.2% — — —

Draw 25.9% — — —

Away win 35.9% — — —

Over 2.5 59.4% — — —

Over 3.5 35.1% — — —

BTTS 58.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.6%

H 38% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2✓ 8.4%

#4 0–0 5.0%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brest1.5

Strasbourg1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 35.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BREST · PPG 1.67

STRASBOURG · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Brest (H) 38.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Strasbourg (A) 35.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Brest face Strasbourg on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brest a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Strasbourg 36%, so Brest are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Brest and 1.5 for Strasbourg (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brest are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.25 for Strasbourg. This match finished 1-2.

Brest vs Strasbourg Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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