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Daugavpils vs RFS Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 12 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 15:00

Daugavpils

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

RFS

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-112.0%0-211.3%0-37.1%0-4+5.1%1 1-05.6%1-110.5%1-29.8%1-36.2%1-4+4.4%2 2-02.4%2-14.6%2-24.3%2-32.7%2-4+1.9%3 3-00.7%3-11.3%3-21.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.0% 12.1% 8.25 +14.2%

Draw 25.9% 20.0% 5.00 +17.7%

Away win 59.1% 78.1% 1.28 -24.3%

Over 2.5 52.3% 67.6% 1.48 -22.6%

Over 3.5 29.7% 45.5% 2.20 -20.8%

BTTS 52.1% 55.6% 1.80 -6.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob52.1%

A 59% / xG 0.9-1.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 0–2 11.3%

#3 0–1✓ 12.0%

#4 1–2 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Daugavpils0.9

RFS1.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DAUGAVPILS · PPG 1.50

RFS · PPG 3.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Daugavpils (H) 15.0%

ODDS 8.25 · IMPLIED 12.1% EV +14.2%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +17.7%

RFS (A) 59.1%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -24.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Daugavpils face RFS in Latvia - Virsliga on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Daugavpils a 15% chance, the draw 26% and RFS 59%, so RFS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Daugavpils and 1.9 for RFS (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Daugavpils are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 3.00 for RFS. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +17.7%. This match finished 0-1.

Daugavpils vs RFS Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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