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Tigers FC vs Monaro Panthers Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Regular Season - 9 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 09:30

Tigers FC

PPG 2.25 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Monaro Panthers

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 78.8% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-11.3%0-21.8%0-31.6%0-4+2.0%1 1-01.3%1-13.6%1-24.7%1-34.1%1-4+5.2%2 2-01.8%2-14.7%2-26.2%2-35.5%2-4+6.8%3 3-01.6%3-14.1%3-25.4%3-34.8%3-4+6.0%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-15.1%4+-26.7%4+-35.9%4+-4+7.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.3% 40.0% 2.50 +3.3%

Draw 21.0% 29.4% 3.40 -17.2%

Away win 37.7% 44.4% 2.25 -15.2%

Over 2.5 78.8% 73.5% 1.36 +7.2%

Over 3.5 77.2% 54.6% 1.83 +41.3%

BTTS 66.7% 76.9% 1.30 -13.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 77%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -10.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob66.7%

A 38% / xG 2.6-2.6 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.2%

#2 2–3 5.5%

#3 3–2 5.4%

#4 3–3 4.8%

#5 1–2 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tigers FC2.6

Monaro Panthers2.6

COMBINED 5.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.8% · O3.5 PROB 77.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TIGERS FC · PPG 2.25

MONARO PANTHERS · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.25) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Tigers FC (H) 41.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +3.3%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -17.2%

Monaro Panthers (A) 37.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tigers FC face Monaro Panthers in Australia - Capital Territory NPL on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tigers FC a 41% chance, the draw 21% and Monaro Panthers 38%, so Tigers FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Tigers FC and 2.6 for Monaro Panthers (5.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tigers FC are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.50 for Monaro Panthers. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +41.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Tigers FC vs Monaro Panthers Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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