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Arka Gdynia vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 31 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 16:00

Arka Gdynia

PPG 1.93 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Gornik Zabrze

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-111.0%0-27.2%0-33.1%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.9%1-112.9%1-28.3%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.8%2-17.5%2-24.9%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.3%3-12.9%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 29.0% 3.45 +24.9%

Draw 28.2% 29.9% 3.35 -3.3%

Away win 35.7% 48.1% 2.08 -25.7%

Over 2.5 47.4% 47.6% 2.10 -0.5%

Over 3.5 23.4% 26.0% 3.85 -5.9%

BTTS 52.1% 54.1% 1.85 -3.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.1%

D 28% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0✓ 8.5%

#3 0–1 11.0%

#4 1–2 8.3%

#5 1–0 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arka Gdynia1.2

Gornik Zabrze1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 23.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ARKA GDYNIA · PPG 1.93

GORNIK ZABRZE · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

54%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.93) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Arka Gdynia (H) 36.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +24.9%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -3.3%

Gornik Zabrze (A) 35.7%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -25.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arka Gdynia face Gornik Zabrze in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arka Gdynia a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Gornik Zabrze 36%, so Arka Gdynia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Arka Gdynia and 1.3 for Gornik Zabrze (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arka Gdynia are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.20 for Gornik Zabrze. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.9%. This match finished 0-0.

Arka Gdynia vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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