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Flamengo W vs Ferroviaria W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Regular Season - 10 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 22:00

Flamengo W

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Ferroviaria W

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+12.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-16.6%0-24.2%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.7%1-111.1%1-27.1%1-33.0%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.4%2-26.0%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.1%3-15.2%3-23.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.2%4+-22.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 40.8% 2.45 +17.6%

Draw 25.7% 33.3% 3.00 -13.7%

Away win 26.3% 35.7% 2.80 -15.8%

Over 2.5 59.4% 52.6% 1.90 +12.9%

Over 3.5 34.4% 31.3% 3.20 +10.1%

BTTS 58.6% 60.6% 1.65 -3.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -30.5%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.6%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.3%

#4 1–2 7.1%

#5 1–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flamengo W1.7

Ferroviaria W1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 34.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FLAMENGO W · PPG 1.75

FERROVIARIA W · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Flamengo W (H) 48.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +17.6%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -13.7%

Ferroviaria W (A) 26.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -15.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Flamengo W face Ferroviaria W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flamengo W a 48% chance, the draw 26% and Ferroviaria W 26%, so Flamengo W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Flamengo W and 1.3 for Ferroviaria W (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flamengo W are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.00 for Ferroviaria W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +17.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Flamengo W vs Ferroviaria W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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